For the first time, MIT researchers have successfully mapped New York City’s foot traffic, revealing surprising patterns about the way people move around the city and where they are most vulnerable to vehicle crashes. Led by Andres Sevtsuk, an associate professor in MIT‘s Department of Urban Studies and Planning, the team built a complete model of pedestrian activity in New York City, which can now be applied to any U.S. city.
The model, which maps foot traffic across all sidewalks, crosswalks, and footpaths in NYC during peak periods, was developed using a framework called Urban Network Analysis. The team assembled data on the location of sidewalks, crosswalks, and footpaths, and then mapped major trip origins and destinations. They simulated how pedestrians move between these locations, accounting for the fact that people don’t always take the shortest route and often have multiple subway stops to choose from. The model was calibrated using pedestrian counts from over 1,000 locations from the NYC Department of Transportation, and can predict pedestrian volumes across every street in the city.
The study found that there is a “Manhattan bias” in policymaking, with streets in Manhattan receiving priority funding for sidewalk widening, pedestrian plazas, and other improvements, while streets in the outer boroughs with higher pedestrian volumes were categorized lower. The model also revealed that the highest concentration of pedestrian crashes is not in Midtown Manhattan, as previously thought, but rather in The Bronx, Staten Island, and outer regions of Brooklyn and Queens. According to Sevtsuk, “We discovered there is a Manhattan bias in policymaking… They were guesstimating, and with guesstimation, we’re all flawed and have biases.”
The implications of the team’s work extend far beyond New York City, and the model can be used to help cities worldwide better understand pedestrian movement and identify areas for improvement. The researchers are now working with 140 cities across the state of Maine to better understand the kinds of upgrades and safety improvements they could make for pedestrians, and have partnered with LA Metro to identify opportunities for improvement in preparation for the LA28 Olympic Games.
The impact of this research could be significant, as it has the potential to help cities steer more federal money into urban, people-oriented infrastructure. As Sevtsuk notes, “Nobody has monetized walking… and this is actually a good thing.” With this new model, cities may be able to develop and standardize a pedestrian network nationwide, highlighting where communities have systematically worse pedestrian infrastructure and helping to target public space investments in places where they affect the most people. The team’s work could pave the way for more efficient and pedestrian-friendly urban planning, and could have a lasting impact on the way cities are designed and developed in the future.
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