A recent survey of 21 experts by ResiClub has shed light on where mortgage rates are headed in 2026. The average prediction among these experts is that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will average 6.18% for the calendar year, which is on par with the current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.09%.
The forecasts, which were gathered through the ResiClub 2026 Housing Economist Survey and other publicly available sources, show a range of predictions. The highest forecast comes from Hunter Housing Economics, which predicts an average rate of 6.6%, while the lowest forecast comes from Morgan Stanley and Erdmann Housing Tracker, which both predict an average rate of 5.75%. Other notable forecasts include 6.5% from Capital Economics, 6.4% from Mortgage Bankers Association and PNC Bank, and 6% from National Association of Realtors and Fannie Mae.
According to the experts, several factors will influence mortgage rates in 2026, including the labor market, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy. For example, Brad Hunter of Hunter Housing Economics notes that the impending change in leadership at the Fed could lead to easier monetary policy, which could lead to lower mortgage rates. Similarly, Mike Simonsen of Compass notes that the mortgage rate lock-in effect, caused by market rates that are well above the rates on existing mortgages, will limit turnover in the housing market.
While the forecasts provide a useful guidepost, they should be taken with a grain of salt. As the article notes, predicting long-term yields depends on accurately anticipating inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and the broader trajectory of the U.S. and global economies, all of which are notoriously hard to get right. Additionally, the “mortgage spread,” which represents the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, could also impact mortgage rates. If the spread continues to compress towards its long-term average, it could help push mortgage rates lower even if Treasury yields hold steady.
In terms of what happens next, if mortgage rates were to fall more than expected, there could be slightly more turnover and sales in the existing home market. However, if the economy were to deteriorate or joblessness were to climb faster than anticipated, that could put additional downward pressure on both Treasury yields and mortgage rates. Ultimately, the experts agree that mortgage rate forecasts are useful guideposts, but not guarantees, and that the actual rates could vary significantly from the predicted averages.
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